July 13th Argentine Division 1 - Sarmiento Junin VS Independiente Prediction
Argentine Division 1 - Sarmiento Junin VS Independiente
Match Time:14-07-2025 01:15 Monday (UTC+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Sarmiento Junín Review
Sarmiento Junín, coached by Juan Manuel Azconzábal, finished 24th in the 2024 Argentine Primera División with 15 points (W3-D6-L8). Their 4-1-4-1 formation relies on forwards Iván Morales and Pablo Daniel Magnin (1 goal each in 2025) and midfielders Joaquin Gho and Gabriel Carabajal (2 goals each in 2024). Sarmiento’s recent form is poor, with no wins in their last six league games (D3-L3), including a 0-0 draw against Independiente on October 31, 2024, and a 1-1 draw vs San Lorenzo on May 3, 2025. They average 0.65 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per match, with a stronger home record (0.64 goals scored, 0.71 conceded). Defensive solidity (3.41 corners per game, 2.37 yellow cards) is a strength, but their low scoring (18 goals in 2024) is a concern. No major injuries reported. Recent form: DLLDD.
CA Independiente Review
Independiente, under Julio Vaccari, ranked 5th in the 2024 Primera División with 29 points (W8-D5-L4) and reached the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals, defeating Boston River 5-1 on May 7, 2025. Their 4-2-3-1 formation features Gabriel Ávalos (8 goals, 2 penalties) and Luciano Cabral (2 goals), with Pablo Galdames and Felipe Loyola providing 2 assists each. Independiente’s form is strong (W4-D1-L0 in last 5), including a 2-0 win over Sarmiento on January 24, 2025, led by Ávalos’s brace. They average 1.83 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per match, with a robust away record (6/14 matches over 2.5 goals). Injuries to Galdames and Ávalos (torn muscle bundles) are concerns, but both are expected to be fit. Recent form: WWWWD
Head to Head
Sarmiento and Independiente have met 11 times since 2013, with Independiente leading 6W-1W-4D. Recent H2H results:
January 24, 2025 (Primera División, Avellaneda): Independiente 2-0 Sarmiento (Ávalos 2 goals).
October 31, 2024 (Primera División, Junín): Sarmiento 0-0 Independiente.
July 3, 2023 (Primera División): Independiente 2-0 Sarmiento. Average goals per match: 2.18, with Independiente scoring 17 (1.5 PPG) and Sarmiento 7 (0.6 PPG). Sarmiento’s lone win was in 2015 (1-0). Both teams score in 36% of H2H games, with 50% over 2.5 goals.
Prediction: Sarmiento Junín 0-1 CA Independiente
Sarmiento’s home advantage at Estadio Eva Perón (22,000 capacity) and low-scoring trend (55.56% home games over 1.5 goals) suggest a cautious approach, with Magnin or Morales targeting set pieces. Independiente’s attacking prowess (Ávalos, Cabral) and strong form (80% win probability in last 5) make them favorites, despite potential absences. Bookmakers give Independiente a 52% win probability (odds ~1.85), with under 2.5 goals at 1.90 (Sarmiento’s 20% over 2.5 goals rate) and both teams to score unlikely (36% H2H trend). Independiente’s 40% Asian Handicap win rate and 4-0 H2H record in last 5 suggest dominance. A low-scoring, controlled game is expected, with Independiente capitalizing on Sarmiento’s offensive struggles. Ávalos or Cabral to score, Acosta to keep a clean sheet.
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