July 10th EAFF East Asian Cup - Hong Kong VS South Korea Prediction
EAFF East Asian Cup - Hong Kong VS South Korea
Match Time:11-07-2025 19:00 Friday (UTC+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Hong Kong Review
Hong Kong, ranked 153rd in FIFA, qualified for the 2025 EAFF E-1 Football Championship final round by winning the preliminary stage in December 2024, defeating Guam 5-0 in the final. Coached by Ashley Westwood, their 4-1-4-1 formation, often shifting to a 3-2-4-1 in attack, features Matt Orr (1 goal vs Japan) and Sun Ming Him, with Chan Siu-Kwan Philip and Yu Yao-Hsing (2 goals each in qualifiers) providing attacking options. Hong Kong started the tournament with a 6-1 loss to Japan on July 8, 2025, at Yongin Mireu Stadium, where defensive errors led to a 5-0 halftime deficit despite Orr’s 59th-minute header. They average 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per match in 2025 competitive games (W3-D1-L2). No major injuries reported, but Shinichi Chan received treatment vs Japan. Recent form: LWWWD.
South Korea Review
South Korea, ranked 23rd in FIFA and the most successful EAFF team with five titles, opened their 2025 campaign with a 3-0 win over China on July 7, 2025, at Yongin Mireu Stadium, with goals from Lee Dong-gyeong, Joo Min-kyu, and Kim Ju-sung. Coached by Hong Myung-bo, their 3-4-3 formation features domestic stars like Jo Hyeon-woo in goal and midfielders Na Sang-ho and Lee Dong-gyeong, with 23 of 26 players from K League clubs. They average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match in 2025 (W4-D1-L0), showcasing defensive solidity (3 clean sheets in 5). Their back-three system, tested vs China, emphasizes versatility. No injuries or suspensions reported. Recent form: WWWDW.
Head to Head
Hong Kong and South Korea have met six times in EAFF tournaments since 2003, with South Korea winning all, scoring 17 goals and conceding 3 (avg. 3.3 goals per match). Their most recent clash was in 2022, a 3-0 South Korean win. Hong Kong’s last victory over South Korea was a 3-2 friendly in 1958. Key results:
Feb 7, 2022 (EAFF, Japan): South Korea 3-0 Hong Kong.
Dec 18, 2019 (EAFF, South Korea): South Korea 2-0 Hong Kong.
Dec 11, 2013 (EAFF, Hong Kong): South Korea 2-1 Hong Kong. Hong Kong have scored in two of their last three EAFF meetings but haven’t kept a clean sheet.
Prediction: Hong Kong 0-3 South Korea
The EAFF E-1 Football Championship Group Stage Round 2 match on July 11, 2025, at 15:00 UTC at Yongin Mireu Stadium heavily favors South Korea. Hong Kong’s aggressive, high-pressing style under Westwood showed promise in their 5-0 qualifier win, but their 6-1 loss to Japan exposed defensive frailties (5 first-half goals conceded). South Korea’s disciplined back-three, clinical attack (3-0 vs China), and historical dominance (6-0 in EAFF H2H) make them overwhelming favorites. Bookmakers give South Korea a 93% win probability (odds ~1.05), with over 2.5 goals at 1.29, supported by Hong Kong’s 100% over 2.5 goals rate vs top teams and South Korea’s 3.3 goals per H2H game. Lee or Joo Min-kyu to score.
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