June 17th UEFA European U-21 Football Championship - Spain U21 VS Italy U21 Prediciton
UEFA European U-21 Football Championship - Spain U21 VS Italy U21
Match Time:18-06-2025 03:00 Wednesday (UTC+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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The UEFA European Under-21 Championship 2025 match between Spain U21 and Italy U21, scheduled for June 17, 2025, at Stadion ŠKP Inter Dúbravka in Trnava, Slovakia, is a crucial Group A finale at 3:00 PM ET (9:00 PM local time). Below is an analysis of the teams, their head-to-head history, and a shortened prediction, incorporating relevant web and X sources.
Team Analysis
Spain U21 (Current Rank: 1st in Group A, 6 points)
Coached by Santi Denia, Spain U21 topped their qualifying group (9 wins, 1 draw) and have won both 2025 group stage matches: 3-2 vs. Slovakia and 2-1 vs. Romania. With Olympic gold medalists from 2024, they’re joint-most successful in U21 EURO history (5 titles, last in 2019).
Strengths:
Attacking Depth: Mateo Joseph (Leeds United, 2 goals) and Javi Guerra (Valencia) lead a potent attack, averaging 2.5 goals per game in the tournament. Substitutes like César Tárrega (match-winner vs. Slovakia) add impact.
Form: Unbeaten in 12 competitive matches, with a 66.7% win rate in 2025 group games.
Key Players: Goalkeeper Álvaro Fernández and midfielder Pablo Gavi provide top-level experience.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Lapses: Conceded in both group matches (2 vs. Slovakia, 1 vs. Romania), with a 1.5 goals conceded per game average.
Injury: Yeremay Hernández’s withdrawal weakened their wing options, though Andrés García replaced him.
Italy U21 (Current Rank: 2nd in Group A, 6 points)
Managed by Carmine Nunziata, Italy U21 also went unbeaten in qualifying (7 wins, 3 draws) and won both group matches: 1-0 vs. Romania and 1-0 vs. Slovakia, securing quarter-final qualification. They share the record with Spain for five U21 EURO titles (last in 2004).
Strengths:
Defensive Solidity: Kept clean sheets in both group matches, with goalkeeper Gioele Desplanches (Palermo) excelling. Captain Lorenzo Pirola (Olympiakos) anchors the defense.
Key Players: Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds United) and Luca Koleosho (Burnley), both Premier League-bound, provide attacking threat, with Cesare Casadei (Chelsea) scoring the winner vs. Slovakia.
Form: Unbeaten in 10 competitive matches, with a 70% win rate in qualifiers.
Weaknesses:
Limited Scoring: Only 1.0 goals per game in the tournament, relying on early goals (e.g., Casadei’s vs. Slovakia).
Historical Struggle vs. Spain: Winless in their last three U21 EURO meetings with Spain (1 draw, 2 losses).
Head-to-Head History
Spain U21 and Italy U21 have met six times in U21 EURO competitions since 1986:
Total Matches: 6
Spain Wins: 3 (Total Goals: 8, PPG: 1.3)
Italy Wins: 1 (Total Goals: 4, PPG: 0.7)
Draws: 2
Recent Encounters:
June 2021 (Group Stage): 0-0 draw.
May 2021 (Semi-Final): Spain won 2-1 (AET).
June 2019 (Group Stage): Spain won 3-1.
Goal Trends: 50% BTTS, 33% over 2.5 goals. Average goals per match: 2.0. Spain are unbeaten in their last three vs. Italy.
Prediction: Spain U21 1-0 Italy U21
Spain U21 (6 points, 2.5 goals per game) and Italy U21 (6 points, 2 clean sheets) are both quarter-final-bound, but top spot in Group A is at stake. Spain’s attacking edge (Joseph, Guerra) and unbeaten record vs. Italy since 2021 give them a slight advantage, but Italy’s defensive solidity (Pirola, Desplanches) and Gnonto’s threat could keep it tight. The 2021 goalless draw suggests a low-scoring affair at Stadion ŠKP Inter Dúbravka, but Spain’s form should edge them out.
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