June 10th AFC Asian Cup - Turkmenistan VS Thailand Prediction
AFC Asian Cup - Turkmenistan VS Thailand
Match Time:10-06-2025 23:00 Tuesday (UTC+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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The AFC Asian Cup Saudi Arabia 2027 Qualifier match between Turkmenistan and Thailand, scheduled for June 10, 2025, at a neutral venue in Ashgabat, is a crucial Group D clash. Both teams are level on three points after 2-1 wins in Matchday 1 (Turkmenistan vs. Chinese Taipei, Thailand vs. Sri Lanka). Below is an analysis of the teams, their head-to-head history, and a prediction for the match.
Team Reviews
Turkmenistan (FIFA Rank: 141)
Turkmenistan, known as the Green Men, are coached by Mergen Orazow and aim to qualify for their third AFC Asian Cup after appearances in 2004 and 2019. Their 2-1 victory over Chinese Taipei, with Yazgylych Gurbanov’s late winner, showcased their resilience despite a challenging 2024 (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in their last five matches).
Strengths:
Resilient Attack: Gurbanov’s goal-scoring form and Turkmenistan’s ability to score late (e.g., vs. Chinese Taipei) highlight their persistence, averaging 0.6 goals per game in recent matches.
Neutral Venue: Playing in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan benefit from familiarity, even if it’s not a true home game due to AFC regulations.
Key Players: Gurbanov and Shanazar Tirkishov provide attacking threat, while goalkeeper Rustam Ashirmuradov offers stability.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Frailties: Conceding 2.0 goals per game in their last five matches, Turkmenistan struggle defensively, as seen in losses to Uzbekistan (1-3) and Iran (0-1).
Inconsistent Form: Their 20% win rate in recent matches and heavy defeats in World Cup qualifiers (e.g., 0-5 vs. Japan) expose vulnerabilities against stronger sides.
Thailand (FIFA Rank: 97)
Thailand, the War Elephants, are led by coach Masatada Ishii and are favorites in Group D after a 1-0 win over Sri Lanka, with Patrik Gustavsson scoring. Having qualified for the 2023 AFC Asian Cup and reached the ASEAN Championship final in 2024, Thailand are a strong Southeast Asian side aiming for another Asian Cup berth.
Strengths:
Attacking Depth: Thailand average 1.6 goals per game in their last five matches, with players like Gustavsson and Supachok Sarachat delivering in key moments.
Recent Form: A 60% win rate in their last five games, including a friendly win ahead of this match, shows confidence.
Experience: Thailand’s consistent AFC Asian Cup appearances (since 2007) and strong showings in regional tournaments give them an edge.
Weaknesses:
Away Challenges: Thailand’s away form is inconsistent, with a 1-0 loss to China in World Cup qualifiers and a 40% Asian Handicap win rate in recent games.
Internal Issues: Reports of internal football federation disputes could affect team morale.
Head-to-Head History
Turkmenistan and Thailand have met twice in competitive matches:
Total Matches: 2
Thailand Wins: 1 (Total Goals: 1, PPG: 1.0)
Turkmenistan Wins: 0
Draws: 1
Recent Encounter: Thailand won 1-0 in a 2022 AFC Asian Cup qualifier, with a late goal sealing the victory. The other match, a 2012 friendly, ended 0-0.
Goal Trends: Both meetings produced under 2.5 goals, with no BTTS. Average goals per match: 0.5.
Match Prediction
With both teams tied on points, this match is critical for Group D’s top spot, as only the group winner advances to the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. Thailand’s superior ranking and experience make them favorites, but Turkmenistan’s resilience and neutral-venue advantage keep it competitive.
Key Factors:
Thailand’s Quality: Their attacking depth and recent form (3 wins in 5) give them an edge over Turkmenistan’s inconsistent defense.
Turkmenistan’s Grit: Their late goal against Chinese Taipei shows they can fight until the end, but their 60% over 2.5 goals rate suggests defensive issues.
Venue: Ashgabat’s neutral setting slightly favors Turkmenistan, but Thailand’s experience in high-stakes matches should help them cope.
Statistical Insights:
Turkmenistan: 20% win probability in last five games, 60% Asian Handicap win rate, 60% of matches over 2.5 goals.
Thailand: 60% win probability, 40% Asian Handicap win rate, 40% of matches over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head: Thailand’s 1-0 win in 2022 and low-scoring trend suggest a tight game.
Prediction: Thailand’s attacking quality and experience should overcome Turkmenistan’s defensive weaknesses, but the neutral venue and Turkmenistan’s late-scoring threat could make it close. Expect a low-scoring win for Thailand.
Final Score Prediction: Turkmenistan 0-1 Thailand
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