June 10th AFC Asian Cup - Philippines VS Tajikistan Prediction
AFC Asian Cup - Philippines VS Tajikistan
Match Time:10-06-2025 19:00 Tuesday (UTC+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
----------------------------------
Team Reviews
Philippines (FIFA Rank: 149)
The Philippine Men’s National Football Team, known as the Azkals, is aiming to return to the AFC Asian Cup after their historic debut in 2019. Under interim head coach Carles Cuadrat, who took over following Albert Capellas’ resignation in April 2025, the team is coming off a strong performance, including a semi-final appearance in the 2024 ASEAN Football Federation (AFF) Championship. Their recent 3-0 victory over Tajikistan in the 2024 Kings Cup highlights their potential to compete against higher-ranked teams.
Strengths:
Attacking Form: The Philippines have shown offensive capability, averaging 1.8 goals per match in their last five games across competitions. Their 7-0 thrashing of Timor-Leste in the 2020 AFF Championship and recent Kings Cup win demonstrate their ability to capitalize on weaker defenses.
Home Advantage: Playing at Rizal Memorial Stadium, the Azkals benefit from familiar conditions and passionate home support, which could boost their performance.
Key Players: Players like Amani Aguinaldo, part of the 40-man AFF Championship pool, provide defensive stability, while the team’s attacking unit has been effective in recent matches.
Weaknesses:
Defensive Vulnerabilities: The Philippines have conceded 1.2 goals per match in their last five games, with heavy losses in World Cup qualifiers (e.g., 0-5 vs. Iraq, 0-2 vs. Vietnam) exposing defensive frailties against stronger sides.
Inconsistent Form: While they’ve had notable wins, draws and losses against teams like Indonesia (1-1) and Vietnam (0-3) suggest inconsistency against tougher opponents.
Coaching Transition: The recent change in coaching staff could affect tactical cohesion, as Cuadrat is still settling into his interim role.
Tajikistan (FIFA Rank: 110)
Tajikistan, nicknamed the Crowns, are making strides in Asian football, having qualified for their first AFC Asian Cup in 2023. Under coach Petar Šegrt, they’ve shown resilience, with a 1-0 win over Timor-Leste in the current qualifiers and a 2-1 friendly victory against Cambodia in June 2025. Their midfield, led by players like Parvizdzhon Umarbayev (CSKA 1948 Sofia), adds creativity and goal-scoring threat.
Strengths:
Recent Form: Tajikistan have won four of their last five matches across competitions, including a 3-0 rout of Pakistan in World Cup qualifying. Their ability to score (1.6 goals per match in their last five) makes them dangerous.
Defensive Solidity: Conceding 1.0 goals per match in recent games, Tajikistan’s backline is relatively organized, with goalkeeper Rustam Yatimov providing reliability.
Experience in Qualifiers: Their undefeated start to World Cup qualifying and competitive showings in the 2023 Asian Cup demonstrate their ability to handle high-stakes matches.
Weaknesses:
Away Form: Tajikistan struggle on the road, averaging just 0.25 points per game in away matches in the Asian Cup qualifiers. Losses like 7-0 to Jordan in World Cup qualifying highlight vulnerabilities away from home.
Over-Reliance on Key Players: The team leans heavily on players like Umarbayev and Shakhrom Samiev for goals, which could be a liability if they’re neutralized.
Inconsistent Finishing: Despite their scoring ability, Tajikistan have failed to score in key matches (e.g., 0-0 vs. Saudi Arabia), which could hurt them against a motivated Philippines side.
Head-to-Head History
The Philippines and Tajikistan have faced each other seven times since 2008, with the Philippines holding a clear edge:
Total Matches: 7
Philippines Wins: 4 (Total Goals: 11, PPG: 1.6)
Tajikistan Wins: 1 (Total Goals: 7, PPG: 1.0)
Draws: 2
Recent Encounter: The Philippines defeated Tajikistan 3-0 in the 2024 Kings Cup, showcasing their ability to dominate this matchup.
Goal Trends: Four of the last six head-to-head games have produced three or more goals, with both teams scoring (BTTS) in 67% of their last three meetings. The average goals per match in these encounters is 3.33.
Both teams enter this match joint-top of Group A with three points after their opening wins (Philippines vs. Maldives, Tajikistan vs. Timor-Leste). The winner will take a significant step toward securing the group’s sole qualification spot for the 2027 AFC Asian Cup.
Key Factors:
The Philippines’ home advantage at Rizal Memorial Stadium could tilt the game in their favor, as Tajikistan have struggled in away qualifiers.
The Azkals’ recent 3-0 win over Tajikistan in the Kings Cup suggests they have the tactical edge and confidence to exploit Tajikistan’s weaknesses.
Tajikistan’s attacking threat, led by Umarbayev and Samiev, will test the Philippines’ shaky defense, but their poor away form (0.25 points per game) is a concern.
The coaching transition for the Philippines may introduce some uncertainty, but Cuadrat’s experience as an assistant should ensure continuity.
Statistical Insights:
Philippines: 60% win probability in their last five games, with a 100% Asian Handicap win rate and 50% of matches going over 2.5 goals.
Tajikistan: 60% win probability in their last five games, but only a 40% Asian Handicap win rate and 80% of matches going over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-head data favors the Philippines, with a 2-0-1 record in their last three meetings and a 3-0 win in their most recent clash.
Prediction: Considering the Philippines’ strong head-to-head record, home advantage, and recent form against Tajikistan, they are slight favorites. However, Tajikistan’s attacking prowess and recent wins make them a threat, especially if they capitalize on the Philippines’ defensive lapses. The match is likely to be competitive, with goals on both sides due to the historical BTTS trend and Tajikistan’s high over-2.5-goals percentage.
Prediction: Philippines 2-1 Tajikistan
The Most Popular
-
June 9th Portugal vs Spain Prediction -
UEFA Nations League 2025 Final: Ronaldo vs Yamal Showdown -
June 10th AFC Asian Cup Qualifiers Malaysia vs Vietnam Prediction -
June 8th UEFA Nations League Germany vs France Prediction -
Third-Place Clash: Germany vs France in Pride Battle -
June 10th FIFA World Cup Qualifiers Japan vs Indonesia Prediction
Desktop View
App
Football
Basketball