The 2026 World Cup European qualifiers (EQ) are shaping up to be exceptionally complex
The draw for the European qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place at FIFA's headquarters in Zurich, Switzerland. On November 20, FIFA officially released the draw procedure for the European qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup. After the restructuring of the UEFA Nations League (UNL), the draw for the European qualifiers will be unprecedentedly complex! (Note: For convenience, the article uses "EQ" to represent the European qualifiers and "UNL" to represent the UEFA Nations League.)
Quota Allocation
UEFA will have 16 spots for the 2026 World Cup.
Participating Teams
UEFA has 55 member associations. If Russia remains suspended, a small group of four teams will be added. (Note: This is based on FIFA's original document, which still assumes 55 teams. However, UEFA's document released on November 11, 2024, states: "UEFA will issue the European Qualifiers 2024-26 Fixture List with the dates and kick-off times of all 192 group stage matches as soon as possible after the conclusion of the group stage draw on 13 December 2024." This implies that the European qualifiers group stage will consist of 192 matches, which is based on 54 participating member associations, confirming Russia’s exclusion from this tournament. All analysis here assumes Russia is suspended.)
Qualification Format
In UEFA’s national team competition structure, the European Qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup (EQ) will run concurrently with the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League (UNL) during the international match windows in March and June 2025.
The EQ group stage will take place during the international match windows of March, June, September, October, and November 2025 (5 windows with 10 matchdays). The UNL quarterfinals and promotion/relegation playoffs will be held in March 2025, and the UNL semifinals, third-place playoff, and final will take place in June 2025.
UEFA's 54 member associations will be divided into 12 groups: six groups with four teams (total of 72 matches), and six groups with five teams (total of 120 matches). The five-team groups (referred to as "5-team groups") will begin EQ matches in March, while teams involved in the UNL will start EQ matches in June. Four-team groups (referred to as "4-team groups") will start EQ matches in September.
In March 2025, 24 teams will participate in the UNL, and in June 2025, 4 teams will also participate in the UNL, meaning these teams will not play EQ matches during these periods.
To accommodate the simultaneous scheduling of EQ and UNL matches in March and June 2025, several conditions must be met to place teams in either 4-team or 5-team groups. Teams in 4-team groups can participate in both March and June UNL matches, while only one team in each 5-team group can play in March UNL matches.
(Note: This rule means that in the six 5-team groups, only one team from each group can play in the UNL, while the other 18 teams will be placed in the 4-team groups.)
Draw Seedings
To draw the 12 groups, each containing 4-5 teams, all teams will be divided into five pots. Pots 1-4 will contain 12 teams each, while the remaining six teams will be placed in Pot 5. The top 8 teams from the UNL quarterfinals will automatically be seeded, while the other four seedings will be determined by FIFA rankings. The second, third, fourth, and fifth pots will also be based on FIFA rankings.
(Note: The image above shows the current EQ pot reference. FIFA’s November rankings will be updated on the 28th, and UEFA will coordinate with FIFA to decide whether the pots will be adjusted based on the distribution of UNL teams.)
The 8 teams from the UNL quarterfinals will be divided into the pots for the draw. Two teams will necessarily be placed in the 5-team groups, meaning those two teams will be "off" in March 2025, while the remaining four teams in their groups will play EQ matches first.
Draw Conditions
In the event of draw conditions, multiple restrictions will be applied, such as match scheduling conflicts, political disputes, winter weather venues, and long-distance travel. When such restrictions occur, the computer will assign teams to the appropriate groups.
Match Scheduling Conflicts
To allow EQ and UNL matches to take place simultaneously in March and June 2025, teams participating in the UNL will be allocated in such a way that only one UNL team can be placed in each 5-team group. UNL teams will be prioritized for 4-team groups, while non-UNL teams will be prioritized for 5-team groups.
Political Conflicts
Based on the UEFA Executive Committee's decisions during the draw, the following countries cannot be placed in the same group:
Armenia/Azerbaijan
Gibraltar/Spain
Kosovo/Bosnia
Kosovo/Serbia
Ukraine/Belarus
If any of these matchups occur, the teams will be placed in the first available group according to the computer's assigned number.
Winter Venues
Teams such as Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Ukraine are considered to have high winter weather risks. For these teams, no more than two can be placed in the same group to minimize the risk of the matches being negatively impacted or unplayable.
Long-Distance Travel
UEFA has identified 20 pairs of countries/regions with long-distance travel between them. To minimize travel burdens, no more than one such pair can be placed in the same group.
Draw Procedure
The draw for the European qualifiers will start with Pot 1, followed by Pot 2, and so on until Pot 5. Each pot will be completely emptied before moving on to the next one. Due to Pot 5 only having six teams, these teams will be drawn into Groups 7 to 12, all in Pot 5. If any draw conditions mentioned earlier occur, teams will be placed into the next available group.
Qualification Rules
In the 12 groups of the EQ, the team finishing first in each group will directly qualify for the 2026 World Cup, securing 12 spots in the tournament. These 12 spots will be confirmed by November 18, 2025.
The second-place teams from each of the 12 groups will enter a playoff, alongside 4 teams from the UNL, forming 16 teams that will compete in the European qualifiers’ playoffs.
The 4 UNL playoff spots will be taken by the 14 group winners from the UNL’s fourth-tier groups. These 14 teams will enter the playoff if they do not finish in the top two of their EQ groups. The 16 teams in the European qualifiers’ playoffs will be divided into four groups, each consisting of 4 teams, and will compete for one World Cup spot. The playoffs will take place in March 2026.
Quota Allocation
UEFA will have 16 spots for the 2026 World Cup.
Participating Teams
UEFA has 55 member associations. If Russia remains suspended, a small group of four teams will be added. (Note: This is based on FIFA's original document, which still assumes 55 teams. However, UEFA's document released on November 11, 2024, states: "UEFA will issue the European Qualifiers 2024-26 Fixture List with the dates and kick-off times of all 192 group stage matches as soon as possible after the conclusion of the group stage draw on 13 December 2024." This implies that the European qualifiers group stage will consist of 192 matches, which is based on 54 participating member associations, confirming Russia’s exclusion from this tournament. All analysis here assumes Russia is suspended.)
Qualification Format
In UEFA’s national team competition structure, the European Qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup (EQ) will run concurrently with the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League (UNL) during the international match windows in March and June 2025.
The EQ group stage will take place during the international match windows of March, June, September, October, and November 2025 (5 windows with 10 matchdays). The UNL quarterfinals and promotion/relegation playoffs will be held in March 2025, and the UNL semifinals, third-place playoff, and final will take place in June 2025.
UEFA's 54 member associations will be divided into 12 groups: six groups with four teams (total of 72 matches), and six groups with five teams (total of 120 matches). The five-team groups (referred to as "5-team groups") will begin EQ matches in March, while teams involved in the UNL will start EQ matches in June. Four-team groups (referred to as "4-team groups") will start EQ matches in September.
In March 2025, 24 teams will participate in the UNL, and in June 2025, 4 teams will also participate in the UNL, meaning these teams will not play EQ matches during these periods.
To accommodate the simultaneous scheduling of EQ and UNL matches in March and June 2025, several conditions must be met to place teams in either 4-team or 5-team groups. Teams in 4-team groups can participate in both March and June UNL matches, while only one team in each 5-team group can play in March UNL matches.
(Note: This rule means that in the six 5-team groups, only one team from each group can play in the UNL, while the other 18 teams will be placed in the 4-team groups.)
Draw Seedings
To draw the 12 groups, each containing 4-5 teams, all teams will be divided into five pots. Pots 1-4 will contain 12 teams each, while the remaining six teams will be placed in Pot 5. The top 8 teams from the UNL quarterfinals will automatically be seeded, while the other four seedings will be determined by FIFA rankings. The second, third, fourth, and fifth pots will also be based on FIFA rankings.
(Note: The image above shows the current EQ pot reference. FIFA’s November rankings will be updated on the 28th, and UEFA will coordinate with FIFA to decide whether the pots will be adjusted based on the distribution of UNL teams.)
The 8 teams from the UNL quarterfinals will be divided into the pots for the draw. Two teams will necessarily be placed in the 5-team groups, meaning those two teams will be "off" in March 2025, while the remaining four teams in their groups will play EQ matches first.
Draw Conditions
In the event of draw conditions, multiple restrictions will be applied, such as match scheduling conflicts, political disputes, winter weather venues, and long-distance travel. When such restrictions occur, the computer will assign teams to the appropriate groups.
Match Scheduling Conflicts
To allow EQ and UNL matches to take place simultaneously in March and June 2025, teams participating in the UNL will be allocated in such a way that only one UNL team can be placed in each 5-team group. UNL teams will be prioritized for 4-team groups, while non-UNL teams will be prioritized for 5-team groups.
Political Conflicts
Based on the UEFA Executive Committee's decisions during the draw, the following countries cannot be placed in the same group:
Armenia/Azerbaijan
Gibraltar/Spain
Kosovo/Bosnia
Kosovo/Serbia
Ukraine/Belarus
If any of these matchups occur, the teams will be placed in the first available group according to the computer's assigned number.
Winter Venues
Teams such as Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Ukraine are considered to have high winter weather risks. For these teams, no more than two can be placed in the same group to minimize the risk of the matches being negatively impacted or unplayable.
Long-Distance Travel
UEFA has identified 20 pairs of countries/regions with long-distance travel between them. To minimize travel burdens, no more than one such pair can be placed in the same group.
Draw Procedure
The draw for the European qualifiers will start with Pot 1, followed by Pot 2, and so on until Pot 5. Each pot will be completely emptied before moving on to the next one. Due to Pot 5 only having six teams, these teams will be drawn into Groups 7 to 12, all in Pot 5. If any draw conditions mentioned earlier occur, teams will be placed into the next available group.
Qualification Rules
In the 12 groups of the EQ, the team finishing first in each group will directly qualify for the 2026 World Cup, securing 12 spots in the tournament. These 12 spots will be confirmed by November 18, 2025.
The second-place teams from each of the 12 groups will enter a playoff, alongside 4 teams from the UNL, forming 16 teams that will compete in the European qualifiers’ playoffs.
The 4 UNL playoff spots will be taken by the 14 group winners from the UNL’s fourth-tier groups. These 14 teams will enter the playoff if they do not finish in the top two of their EQ groups. The 16 teams in the European qualifiers’ playoffs will be divided into four groups, each consisting of 4 teams, and will compete for one World Cup spot. The playoffs will take place in March 2026.
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